### Guinea's Presidential Election: A Return to Civilian Rule or a Continuation of Military Control? Guinea is currently undergoing its first presidential election since the military coup in 2021, which saw General Mamady Doumbouya seize power. This election is pivotal as it is expected to solidify Doumbouya's rule, with analysts predicting a significant advantage due to a fragmented opposition and the absence of major political figures who have been exiled or sidelined. Security measures are heightened, especially following reports of an armed group being neutralized prior to the election, indicating potential unrest during this critical democratic process [https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/guinea-votes-in-first-election-since-2021-coup-with-junta-leader-expected-to-win]. ### Structure of the Election Overview 1. **Context of the Election** - The election marks Guinea's transition back to civilian governance after a coup in 2021. - General Mamady Doumbouya is expected to win a seven-year mandate, completing this transition [https://www.local10.com/news/world/2025/12/28/guinea-votes-in-first-election-since-2021-coup-with-junta-leader-expected-to-win]. 2. **Political Landscape** - Doumbouya faces eight other candidates, but the opposition is significantly weakened, with many leaders in exile [https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3743307-guineas-transition-doumbouya-poised-for-presidential-victory]. - The election follows a new constitution that allows junta members to run for office, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral process [https://apnews.com/article/guinea-presidential-election-doumbouya-219d72ea90ad898fbd90f36b48fc129d]. 3. **Security and Stability Concerns** - Security forces are on high alert due to potential threats, including the neutralization of an armed group before the election [https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/guinea-votes-in-first-election-since-2021-coup-with-junta-leader-expected-to-win]. - Observers from ECOWAS are monitoring the election to ensure a fair process, although skepticism remains regarding the election's democratic integrity [https://apnews.com/article/guinea-presidential-election-doumbouya-219d72ea90ad898fbd90f36b48fc129d]. ### Key Data Points and Evidence - **Voter Participation**: Approximately 6.7 million voters are expected to participate in this election [https://apnews.com/article/guinea-presidential-election-doumbouya-219d72ea90ad898fbd90f36b48fc129d]. - **Candidates**: Doumbouya is competing against eight other candidates, but the lack of strong opposition is a significant factor in his anticipated victory [https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3743307-guineas-transition-doumbouya-poised-for-presidential-victory]. - **Security Measures**: Reports indicate that security forces have neutralized threats ahead of the election, highlighting the tense atmosphere surrounding the voting process [https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/guinea-votes-in-first-election-since-2021-coup-with-junta-leader-expected-to-win]. ### Conclusion: Implications of the Election Outcome In summary, the presidential election in Guinea is poised to reinforce General Mamady Doumbouya's grip on power, with a fragmented opposition and heightened security concerns shaping the electoral landscape. The anticipated victory could either mark a step towards stabilizing civilian governance or further entrench military rule under the guise of democratic processes. 1. **Doumbouya's Expected Victory**: Analysts predict a win for Doumbouya due to weakened opposition and a favorable political environment [https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3743307-guineas-transition-doumbouya-poised-for-presidential-victory]. 2. **Concerns Over Democratic Integrity**: The legitimacy of the election is questioned, given the new constitution and the absence of significant opposition [https://apnews.com/article/guinea-presidential-election-doumbouya-219d72ea90ad898fbd90f36b48fc129d]. 3. **Security and Stability**: The heightened security measures reflect the potential for unrest, underscoring the challenges facing Guinea as it navigates this critical electoral moment [https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/guinea-votes-in-first-election-since-2021-coup-with-junta-leader-expected-to-win].