### WTO Adjusts Global Trade Growth Forecast: A Positive Outlook for 2025 Amid Tariff Concerns The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly revised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025, increasing it to **2.4%** from a previous estimate of **0.9%** made in August 2025. This optimistic adjustment comes in light of robust trade activity in the first half of the year, driven by businesses front-loading imports to avoid anticipated tariff increases. However, the WTO has also cautioned that the effects of tariffs imposed by the U.S. are expected to dampen trade growth in 2026, with a stark reduction in the forecast to **0.5%** from an earlier estimate of **1.8%** [https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2025/10/08/wto-raises-2025-global-trade-growth-forecast-to-2-4, https://www.financialexpress.com/policy/economy-wto-raises-world-trade-forecast-for-2025-to-2-4-says-tariff-impact-shifted-to-2026-4002280]. ### Breakdown of the WTO's Trade Growth Forecast 1. **2025 Growth Projection**: - The WTO has raised its global trade growth forecast for 2025 to **2.4%**. - This increase is attributed to a surge in imports, particularly in AI-related goods, as businesses sought to mitigate the impact of impending tariffs [https://www.indexbox.io/blog/wto-raises-2025-trade-growth-forecast-to-24-on-ai-boom]. 2. **2026 Growth Projection**: - The forecast for 2026 has been downgraded to **0.5%**. - This revision reflects the anticipated delayed effects of tariffs imposed by the U.S., which are expected to significantly impact trade volumes [https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/world-trade-organization-downgrades-global-trade-growth-forecast-5388336]. 3. **Factors Influencing Trade Growth**: - The first half of 2025 saw a **4.9%** increase in global goods trade, driven by front-loaded imports and strong demand for AI-related products [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/wto-hikes-global-trade-forecast-for-2025-slowdown-expected-in-2026-.html]. - The WTO noted that the resilience in trade during 2025 is likely to be short-lived due to the looming tariff impacts [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-07/wto-sees-full-drag-of-trump-tariffs-hitting-trade-growth-in-2026]. ### Supporting Data and Evidence - **Trade Growth Rates**: - **2025**: Projected growth of **2.4%**. - **2026**: Revised growth forecast of **0.5%**. - **First Half of 2025**: Global goods trade growth recorded at **4.9%** [https://www.financialexpress.com/policy/economy-wto-raises-world-trade-forecast-for-2025-to-2-4-says-tariff-impact-shifted-to-2026-4002280]. - **Key Drivers**: - Increased imports of AI-related goods, including semiconductors and cloud servers, have bolstered trade volumes [https://www.semafor.com/article/10/07/2025/wto-hikes-global-trade-forecast-for-2025]. ### Conclusion: A Mixed Outlook for Global Trade In summary, the WTO's revised forecasts present a **positive outlook for 2025** with a projected growth of **2.4%**, primarily driven by strategic import behaviors and technological advancements in AI. However, the **2026 forecast** paints a more cautious picture, with a significant drop to **0.5%** growth anticipated due to the delayed effects of tariffs. 1. **2025 Growth**: Optimistic forecast of **2.4%** driven by AI and front-loading. 2. **2026 Concerns**: Downgraded forecast to **0.5%** due to tariff impacts. 3. **Key Drivers**: AI-related goods and strategic import decisions are pivotal for current growth. The WTO's findings underscore the complexities of global trade dynamics, highlighting both opportunities and challenges ahead [https://www.indexbox.io/blog/wto-cuts-2026-trade-growth-forecast-to-05-amid-tariff-uncertainty].