### Global Oil Demand Forecast: A Shift Towards Peak Consumption by 2029 The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reaffirmed its prediction that global oil demand will reach its peak by the end of this decade, specifically around 2029. This forecast is influenced by several factors, including the rise in electric vehicle (EV) sales, a slowdown in economic growth, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Notably, while China is expected to hit its peak oil demand in 2027, the IEA anticipates that global consumption will continue to grow until 2029, driven by lower gasoline prices and slower EV adoption in the United States. This outlook contrasts with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which predicts a more prolonged growth in oil consumption without a definitive peak forecasted [https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/IEA-Doubles-Down-On-Peak-Oil-Demand-Forecast.html, https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/commodities/global-oil-demand-expected-to-rise-this-decade-despite-china-reaching-peak-in-2027-says-iea-13131482.html]. ### Breakdown of the IEA's Oil Demand Forecast 1. **Global Demand Growth**: The IEA projects that global oil demand will continue to rise until it peaks at approximately 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029, despite a peak in China expected in 2027 [https://bilyonaryo.com/2025/06/17/world-oil-demand-to-keep-growing-this-decade-despite-2027-china-peak-iea-says/power]. 2. **Factors Influencing Demand**: - **Electric Vehicle Adoption**: Slower adoption rates of EVs in the U.S. are contributing to sustained oil consumption [https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/06/17/global-oil-demand-to-peak-by-2029-as-china-hits-2027-high]. - **Gasoline Prices**: Lower gasoline prices are expected to support higher demand levels [https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/headlines/3460856-global-oil-demand-to-peak-by-2029-amid-us-and-china-shifts]. - **Economic Growth**: Slowing economic growth in major markets is also a significant factor [https://greentechlead.com/energy-news/global-oil-demand-and-spending-trends-ieas-2025-outlook-50032]. 3. **Contrasting Views**: The IEA's forecast stands in contrast to OPEC's outlook, which does not predict a peak in oil demand, suggesting a more optimistic view of long-term consumption trends [https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/headlines/3460856-global-oil-demand-to-peak-by-2029-amid-us-and-china-shifts]. ### Supporting Data and Projections - **Peak Demand Timeline**: - **China**: Expected to reach peak oil demand in **2027**. - **Global**: Anticipated peak at **105.6 million bpd** by **2029**. - **Key Influencing Factors**: - **Electric Vehicle Adoption**: Slower than anticipated in the U.S. - **Gasoline Prices**: Currently lower, encouraging consumption. ### Conclusion: Navigating the Future of Oil Demand In summary, the IEA's forecast indicates a significant shift in global oil demand dynamics, with a peak expected by **2029**. The following points encapsulate the findings: 1. **Global oil demand is projected to peak at 105.6 million bpd by 2029**, despite a peak in China by 2027. 2. **Key factors driving this growth include lower gasoline prices and slower EV adoption in the U.S.**. 3. **The IEA's outlook contrasts with OPEC's predictions**, which foresee continued growth without a peak. This comprehensive overview highlights the complexities and uncertainties surrounding future oil demand, emphasizing the need for stakeholders to adapt to these evolving trends [https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/IEA-Doubles-Down-On-Peak-Oil-Demand-Forecast.html, https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/commodities/global-oil-demand-expected-to-rise-this-decade-despite-china-reaching-peak-in-2027-says-iea-13131482.html].