### Netanyahu's Government on the Brink: Tensions Over Military Draft Law - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is facing a potential collapse as ultra-Orthodox parties threaten to dissolve the Knesset over a contentious military service exemption law. This situation has escalated tensions within his ruling coalition, which includes several religious parties that are pivotal to his majority in parliament. The crisis has led to speculation about early elections, with the opposition poised to capitalize on the instability [https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/netanyahus-government-faces-possible-collapse-as-the-opposition-seeks-to-dissolve-it/article69683290.ece]. ### Structure of the Current Political Crisis 1. **Background of the Coalition**: Netanyahu's government is a coalition that relies heavily on ultra-Orthodox parties, which have been vocal about their demands regarding military service exemptions. 2. **The Draft Law Controversy**: The proposed law aims to exempt members of the ultra-Orthodox community from mandatory military service, a point of contention that has led to significant political strife. 3. **Threats of Dissolution**: Key coalition partners have threatened to withdraw their support, which could lead to a vote to dissolve the Knesset, thereby triggering early elections. 4. **Potential Outcomes**: Analysts suggest that while the situation is precarious, it may not necessarily lead to the end of Netanyahu's political career or his government, given his history of political resilience [https://sg.news.yahoo.com/netanyahu-faces-vote-dissolve-parliament-072218391.html, https://apnews.com/article/israel-netanyahu-politics-ultraorthodox-military-hamas-war-5bb3b23b3a85ac94e4a095d77106db48]. ### Supporting Evidence and Data - **Coalition Composition**: Netanyahu's coalition includes several ultra-Orthodox parties, which are crucial for maintaining a parliamentary majority. - **Public Sentiment**: Recent polls indicate a divided public opinion on military service exemptions, with many Israelis supporting equal service obligations across all demographics. - **Historical Context**: Previous attempts to pass similar laws have faced backlash, indicating a pattern of political instability surrounding military service issues in Israel [https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2025-06-10/netanyahus-government-could-collapse-over-ultra-orthodox-military-draft-law, https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3453203-netanyahus-coalition-teeters-amid-ultra-orthodox-military-exemption-dispute]. ### Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Netanyahu's Leadership 1. **Immediate Threat**: Netanyahu's government is at a critical juncture, with the potential for dissolution looming due to internal coalition disputes over the military draft law. 2. **Political Implications**: The outcome of the upcoming vote could reshape the political landscape in Israel, potentially leading to early elections. 3. **Future Prospects**: Despite the current turmoil, Netanyahu's political history suggests he may navigate this crisis, but the situation remains fluid and unpredictable [https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/netanyahu-government-could-collapse-over-ultra-orthodox-military-draft-law-report-3202633, https://www.latestly.com/agency-news/world-news-netanyahus-government-could-collapse-over-ultra-orthodox-military-draft-law-6916913.html].