### Economic Turmoil: Global Growth Projections Diminish Amid Rising Tariffs Recent economic forecasts have been significantly downgraded due to escalating trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China. Major financial institutions, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, have revised their GDP growth predictions for China, attributing these changes to the impact of increased tariffs. The situation is compounded by similar downgrades in Germany, highlighting a broader trend of economic uncertainty across major global economies. - UBS has lowered its GDP growth forecast for China to **3.4%** for 2025, citing persistent tariff hikes and the need for additional stimulus from Beijing [https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ubs-lowers-forecast-china-2025-gdp-growth-34-tariff-hikes-2025-04-15]. - Goldman Sachs has also revised its projections, now expecting **4%** growth for China in 2025, down from **4.5%**, and **3.5%** for 2026, reflecting the adverse effects of tariffs [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/goldman-sachs-revises-down-china-gdp-growth-forecasts-cites-tariff-effects-2025-04-10]. ### Breakdown of Economic Forecasts and Impacts 1. **China's GDP Growth Projections**: - UBS: **3.4%** for 2025 due to ongoing tariffs and anticipated stimulus measures [https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ubs-lowers-forecast-china-2025-gdp-growth-34-tariff-hikes-2025-04-15]. - Goldman Sachs: **4%** for 2025, revised from **4.5%**, and **3.5%** for 2026, citing tariff impacts [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/goldman-sachs-revises-down-china-gdp-growth-forecasts-cites-tariff-effects-2025-04-10]. 2. **Global Aluminium Price Forecasts**: - Goldman Sachs has cut its aluminium price forecast due to a weaker growth outlook, influenced by the same tariff concerns affecting China [https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-cuts-aluminium-price-forecast-weaker-growth-outlook-2025-04-14]. 3. **Germany's Economic Outlook**: - German economic institutes have slashed their growth forecast to **0.1%** for 2025, attributing this to the negative effects of U.S. tariffs [https://www.dw.com/en/german-experts-slash-growth-outlook-amid-trump-tariffs/a-72196684]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to hinder Germany's export-driven economy, which has already faced two consecutive years of contraction [https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3341909-german-economy-faces-storm-new-tariffs-threaten-recovery]. ### Supporting Data and Evidence - **China's GDP Growth Forecasts**: - UBS: **3.4%** for 2025 [https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ubs-lowers-forecast-china-2025-gdp-growth-34-tariff-hikes-2025-04-15]. - Goldman Sachs: **4%** for 2025, **3.5%** for 2026 [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/goldman-sachs-revises-down-china-gdp-growth-forecasts-cites-tariff-effects-2025-04-10]. - **Germany's Growth Forecast**: - Revised to **0.1%** for 2025 due to tariff impacts [https://www.dw.com/en/german-experts-slash-growth-outlook-amid-trump-tariffs/a-72196684]. ### Conclusion: A Cautious Economic Outlook In summary, the global economic landscape is facing significant challenges due to rising tariffs, particularly between the U.S. and China. The following points encapsulate the current situation: 1. **China's GDP growth is projected to slow**, with UBS forecasting **3.4%** and Goldman Sachs at **4%** for 2025. 2. **Germany's economic growth is nearly stagnant**, with a forecast of just **0.1%** for 2025, heavily influenced by U.S. tariffs. 3. **Global commodity prices**, such as aluminium, are also being adjusted downward in response to these economic forecasts. The interplay of these factors suggests a cautious approach to economic planning and investment in the near future, as the ramifications of trade policies continue to unfold [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/goldman-sachs-revises-down-china-gdp-growth-forecasts-cites-tariff-effects-2025-04-10].