### Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Threat No More, But Moon Impact Still Uncertain Recent observations and calculations by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have significantly reduced the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032. Initially considered a potential threat, the asteroid's impact probability has now been lowered to nearly zero, although concerns remain regarding its possible impact on the Moon. - **Initial Concerns**: When first discovered in December 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 was thought to pose a significant risk, with estimates suggesting a collision probability as high as 20% [https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/2019453/nasa-deadly-asteroid-earth-hit-chances]. - **Recent Findings**: New data from various observatories, including the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope, have led to a dramatic reassessment of the asteroid's trajectory, confirming that it is unlikely to hit Earth [https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/science-environment/3281712-asteroid-2024-yr4-new-data-eases-earth-impact-fears]. - **Moon Impact Risk**: While the risk to Earth is negligible, there remains a 1.7% chance that the asteroid could collide with the Moon [https://www.republicworld.com/science/no-longer-a-threat-asteroid-2024-yr4-dodges-earth-but-scientists-keep-watch-on-the-moon]. ### Understanding the Current Assessment of Asteroid 2024 YR4 1. **Discovery and Initial Risk Assessment**: - Discovered in December 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially classified as a "city killer" due to its size, estimated between 40 to 90 meters [https://www.independent.co.uk/space/city-killer-asteroid-yr4-threat-b2704745.html]. - Early calculations suggested a collision probability of up to 20% with Earth in 2032 [https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/2019453/nasa-deadly-asteroid-earth-hit-chances]. 2. **Revised Calculations**: - Following extensive observations, NASA and ESA have revised the impact probability to just **0.004%**, indicating a 99.9983% chance of a safe passage [https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/new-nasa-data-lowers-asteroid-2024-yr4-s-earth-impact-risk-to-just-0-004-nc-125022500940_1.html]. - The reassessment was based on data from multiple telescopes and advanced tracking techniques [https://www.space.com/asteroid-yr-2024-very-large-telescope]. 3. **Ongoing Monitoring**: - Despite the low risk to Earth, scientists continue to monitor the asteroid closely, particularly for its potential impact on the Moon, which remains a possibility [https://www.bizzbuzz.news/technology/asteroid-2024-yr4-no-longer-a-threat-to-earth-but-moon-impact-still-a-possibility-1353473]. ### Key Data Points on Asteroid 2024 YR4 - **Initial Impact Probability**: Up to 20% [https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/2019453/nasa-deadly-asteroid-earth-hit-chances]. - **Current Impact Probability**: **0.004%** [https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/new-nasa-data-lowers-asteroid-2024-yr4-s-earth-impact-risk-to-just-0-004-nc-125022500940_1.html]. - **Chance of Moon Impact**: **1.7%** [https://www.republicworld.com/science/no-longer-a-threat-asteroid-2024-yr4-dodges-earth-but-scientists-keep-watch-on-the-moon]. ### Conclusion: A Sigh of Relief for Earth, Caution for the Moon In summary, the risk posed by asteroid 2024 YR4 to Earth has been effectively eliminated, with a **0.004%** chance of impact in 2032. This significant reduction in risk is a result of thorough observations and recalibrations by NASA and ESA. However, the potential for a Moon impact remains a concern, warranting continued vigilance from the scientific community. 1. **Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat to Earth**. 2. **Impact probability has dropped to 0.004%**. 3. **Monitoring for Moon impact continues with a 1.7% risk**. This comprehensive assessment underscores the importance of ongoing astronomical observations and the effectiveness of international collaboration in space monitoring efforts [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/science/asteroid-2024-yr4.html].